2022年12月8日学术报告通知

发布时间:2022-12-01

【讲座时间】2022年12月8日  14:00

【参加方式】线上

【讲座主题】Global Sales Network and Analyst Forecasts

【嘉宾介绍】顾朝阳香港中文大学会计学教授

  Dr. Gu Zhaoyang is Professor of Accountancy, Outstanding Fellow of the Faculty of Business Administration at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), and an Editor of The Accounting Review by the American Accounting Association. His main research interests are in capital market-based empirical accounting research including analyst and management forecasts, earnings management, and valuation use of accounting information in the equity and debt markets. He has published a number of papers in the top academic journals such as JAE, TAR, MS. 

【内容提要】

  We construct global sales network (GSN) within an analyst’s portfolio using advanced machine learning technologies (Naïve Bayes algorithm and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Networks). GSN measures the geographic overlap in an analyst’s portfolio firms’ global sales destinations and has important implications for analysts’ forecasting behavior. We find that analysts whose portfolios have greater GSN similarity, tend to issue standalone sales forecasts that are more accurate. They also tend to issue more accurate earnings forecasts and this effect is particularly pronounced when portfolio firms have high leverage and when the earnings forecasts are accompanied by sales forecasts. Additional analyses suggest that analysts learn from portfolio companies’ earnings surprise and actively revise their forecasts of other portfolio firms with similar GSN. Analysts’ cultural and ethnic origin is a likely cause for analysts’ heterogeneity in holding portfolios with different degree of GSN overlaps. Our paper provides evidence on a previously unexplored dimension of learning by analysts and has important implications for optimal analyst forecasting in the era of globalization.